The evolution toward sixth-generation mobile technology is a long-term process requiring years of planning, coordination, and investment before reaching consumers at scale. While more than five billion 6G connections are anticipated by 2040, this technology will only become dominant around 2035–2037. Consequently, the 2030s will be characterized by a decade of coexistence where 5G and 6G networks operate simultaneously. According to Luciana, Head of Spectrum, and Ross, Senior Director of Spectrum Strategy at the GSMA, choices made today regarding spectrum, standards, and investment will determine network capacity and global access in the coming decades.
Harmonization remains critical for the success of every mobile generation, including 6G. This does not imply identical implementation worldwide but rather an agreement on foundational parameters for spectrum, standards, and policy. Current developments include securing access to spectrum capable of supporting wide 200–400 MHz channels in relevant bands. These channels are essential not only for higher data rates but also for enabling efficient radio technologies, improving network economics, and delivering future AI-native services. Additionally, the industry is working to finalize 3GPP work on globally agreed standards and establish national digital policies that prioritize infrastructure investment to maximize economic growth.
The current landscape shows approximately 350 active 5G networks, a figure with significant room for growth. Although 5G launched in 2018, its dominant period is just beginning, with connections expected to overtake 4G later this decade. The technology's success has relied on ensuring networks keep pace with data demand rather than delivering a single killer application. As 5G matures and network quality improves, traffic continues to grow, necessitating continued investment in both 5G standalone and 5G-Advanced technologies. However, if spectrum availability remains constrained to current levels, cities housing over 50% of the world's urban population will face capacity limitations by 2030.
Looking ahead, 6G must address capacity drivers linked to network quality and data consumption. As networks become faster and more responsive, users consume more data, making new, data-intensive applications viable. With the development of AI, sensing, and multi-device environments, the number of connections is expected to grow much faster than the human population. Currently, there are around 8.8 billion mobile connections compared to 5.8 billion unique subscribers. Future scenarios involving continuous interaction between people, vehicles, machines, and sensors will widen this gap significantly.
Spectrum policy for the 6G era must focus on ensuring sufficient capacity where demand is highest, often utilizing mid-bands, while maintaining broad geographic coverage through low-band spectrum to ensure parity between urban and rural areas. Two key elements are required when releasing spectrum for the 2030s: encouraging investment through forward-thinking government policies and understanding specific industry needs. History suggests that prioritizing upfront auction revenues over network economics can be detrimental, as seen in some 3G and fragmented 5G auctions. Instead, value should be measured by the economic and social benefits created by the networks.
Industry analysis indicates that 6G will require 200–400 MHz channels per operator. On average, markets may need around 2–2.5 GHz of mid-band spectrum by 2035–2040, rising to 2.4–3.3 GHz in higher-demand areas. While this spectrum does not need to be available immediately, a credible roadmap is essential for long-term network planning. Widespread harmonization will deliver economies of scale and help keep devices affordable. Ultimately, decisions on spectrum, standards, infrastructure, and investment will determine not only the capabilities of 6G networks but also how widely their benefits are shared across the global economy.
Sources: TechRadar.